What's the Future for the I.C. Engine?

It’s becoming more and more important that we have a sustainable future for transport and it’s true that electric vehicles (EV’s) will and are currently playing a role.

However, we also need to remember that there is no one-solution approach to sustainable mobility across every situation. We need the ability to use solutions that are the best fit for multiple requirements.

For a number of years, policymakers within governments have experimented with legislative force to influence a complete transition away from internal combustion engines (ICE).

These include the European Union ban (now-downscaled) on new ICE vehicles from 2035 onwards, and the Glasgow Declaration commitment at COP26 to end ICE sales globally by 2040. Examples of virtue signalling without the full knowledge of the impact to a complex problem.

Legislation can influence the direction for change, but it’s ultimately the consumer’s demand that drives its real direction. Currently the market is speaking and is indicating an enduring demand for ICE powered vehicles.

If you look closely at the European new-car market, which by the way has seen one of the strongest legislative pushes for an ICE phaseout, despite this legislative force, ICE powered hybrid registrations rose by 12.6% in March 2024, while battery-electric registrations dropped by 11.3% in the same period.

In some markets, like South America, demand remains in favour of ICE vehicles. Of the 3.1 million new passenger cars sold in that region in 2023, only 90,000 of them were EV’s, that’s about 3%.

ICE powered vehicles are continuing to be in demand in all markets and have become a key to deploying sustainable fuel technologies at scale, such as synthetic e-fuels or green hydrogen.

The successful deployment of new fuels is a critical priority for some regions, with automotive leaders like the Renault Group CEO, who is also president of the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, arguing that hydrogen based fuels should be a major project for Europe, if it wishes to compete against China’s booming automotive sector.

There are estimates that by 2030 investments into hydrogen alone will total $320 billion, with annual investment in other sustainable fuel types averaging $51 billion. To be employed for transport and mobility, these zero or low emission fuels will require next generation ICE powertrains. By using these fuels, hybrids and ICE vehicles can achieve a near identical carbon footprint to EVs, from start to finish.

ICE vehicles have a proven track record of leveraging sustainable, alternative fuels. In fact, this is the reason they continue to play a dominant role in markets like Brazil. Clean bioethanol-powered ICE vehicles make up more than 80% of the country’s new vehicle sales. Bioethanol, flex fuels, and other sustainable fuels are established fixtures in many economies, and are set to further grow in adoption as a major component of various national sustainability roadmaps.

For example, India plans to roll out a new 20% bioethanol fuel standard next year.

Some industry leaders believe that ICE vehicles will be the dominant majority for decades, with Toyota chairman projecting that global EV adoption will peak at just 30% of the total market.

Regardless of what the exact market share ends up being, the fundamental point is that the internal combustion engine, especially when powered by low-carbon technology and alternative fuels will remain a significant fixture of the automotive market.

December 2024